tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4430111450575356526.post19067064232741977..comments2024-03-22T22:09:09.407+00:00Comments on Imperfect Cognitions: Optimism Bias and Belief UpdatingKengo Miyazonohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01643685718519136099noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4430111450575356526.post-81784847974356674682014-11-17T14:27:03.155+00:002014-11-17T14:27:03.155+00:00The exact effect of the optimism bias on behaviour...The exact effect of the optimism bias on behaviour and overall resilience is frustratingly hard to assess. So there certainly seems to be an association between positive affect and bias, or at the very least one between negative affect and not being biased, as there are numerous studies showing that depressed people do not have the same kind of bias. However, whether being optimistically biased is a good thing because it allows us to undertake endeavours we would not otherwise, or to be more successful in the ones we do undertake because we are less likely to give up, is a different question. And it is frequently perceived as detrimental in getting people to look after their health because of the 'it won't happen to me' attitude. There is a good summary of work on effect on behaviour at the end of Shepperd et al 2013 'Taking Stock of Unrealistic Optimism' (Perspectives on Psychological Science) though I am afraid their take home message seems to be: we don't know enough yet.Annelihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733454065195285463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4430111450575356526.post-73538869336052878772014-11-14T09:59:21.071+00:002014-11-14T09:59:21.071+00:00Hi Anneli
Thank you for your post and reply to E...Hi Anneli <br /><br />Thank you for your post and reply to Ema. I was wondering whether one could summarise your response in this way: if we are excessively optimistic about the future, we may be risk-takers and not act in a way that keeps us safe, but when something bad actually happens we may be better able to react positively and "bounce back". <br /><br />I wonder whether there is literature supporting this latter thought (which I am intuitively very sympathetic to). In the relationship literature, what I found is that general optimism gives rise to better coping strategies when difficulties in the relationship emerge. However, optimistic beliefs specific to the relationship or the partner do not predict good relationship outcomes (somehow they are a bit like smoking 40 cigarettes a day and underestimating the risk of lung cancer).<br /><br />Does this make sense to you? Have you got any other examples that would help understand how optimism and coping work?Lisa Bortolotti https://www.blogger.com/profile/00976016764033246051noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4430111450575356526.post-50725555471050825902014-11-14T08:04:39.019+00:002014-11-14T08:04:39.019+00:00Hi Ema,
Thanks for your comment. We did indeed hav...Hi Ema,<br />Thanks for your comment. We did indeed have every participant do estimates for self and for similar others, half the trials where for self, the other half for similar other. (Sorry for not getting that across clearly enough) Whether there would be a change if participants were asked to re-estimate for themselves and a similar other at the same time, I am not sure.It's an interesting thought. <br />Regarding the question of the beneficial nature of the optimism bias, I think there is certainly something to that. It probably helps resilience etc. if we are somewhat to optimistic. But it may of course end up being harmful when we are smoking 40 a day but are still very optimistic about our chances of contracting lung cancer...<br />Also, I think it is actually quite hard to say when people are actually making mistakes in their estimates. We can tell that their updating pattern is skewed, but they may still have good reasons to think of themselves as special in any given scenario.<br />Annelihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733454065195285463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4430111450575356526.post-46467095956316692562014-11-11T14:07:30.222+00:002014-11-11T14:07:30.222+00:00Hi Anneli,
What exciting results! I’ve thought a...Hi Anneli, <br /><br />What exciting results! I’ve thought a bit about doxastic biases, and what adaptive role they play. Peter Railton in his ‘Truth, Reason, and the Regulation of Belief’ claims that ‘[i]t would appear to be part of the normal, healthy operation of one’s self image that one discount negative evidence and defy the odds’ (1994: 92). I’m sympathetic to that view, it seems like something is going *right* when we make these judgments. I was just wondering what you think of this kind of claim? Given how prolific optimism bias is, might it be something which is (biologically?) useful for us to have, and indeed, no accident that we do have?<br /><br />Also, I wonder quite how much ‘negative evidence’ the bias can stand. I noticed that in your experiment, half of the participants were asked to give self-related judgements, and half other-related judgements. Do you think that the optimism bias with respect to self-related judgements would be maintained if participants were asked to give *both* self-related and other-related judgements after being told the average likelihoods? In that case, the contrast between self and other is presented to the subject, and so it might be harder the bias to be influencing the subjects' judgements?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com