tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4430111450575356526.post7548455967008472739..comments2024-03-14T17:13:30.060+00:00Comments on Imperfect Cognitions: What is Unrealistic Optimism?Kengo Miyazonohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01643685718519136099noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4430111450575356526.post-47105194752353339252017-04-11T15:13:06.817+01:002017-04-11T15:13:06.817+01:00Thanks for your response and apologies for the del...Thanks for your response and apologies for the delayed reaction. I think you make some very interesting comments on rational goal setting. While this is a related area, it doesn't directly speak to the epistemic rationality of expectations we discuss. It is feasible that we can rationally pursue goals which we realise to be very ambitious and unlikely to be realied. However, the findings we discuss concern the epistemic rationality, i.e. the sensitivity to evidence of beliefs about what will happen. Selectively taking into account information when it is desirable is epistemically irrational insofar as it makes biased use of available information. However, this is compatible with the assumption that adopting these goals may nevertheless be instrumentally rational, even if they are ambitious. In fact, there is literature that claims that the optimism bias and other positive illusions have this kind of instrumental rationality because they contribute to attempts to achieve certain goals. <br /><br />Regards,<br />AnneliAnnelihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07733454065195285463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4430111450575356526.post-53098520735989713612017-04-05T15:07:34.216+01:002017-04-05T15:07:34.216+01:00Proposition: an extension of this analysis so as t...Proposition: an extension of this analysis so as to account for people selecting and updating their goals reduces and perhaps removes the amount of apparent irrationality exhibited.<br /><br />Model: A person is in present state A, and wishes to achieve improved future state A'. Person concludes action X as the means to achieve this.<br /><br />However new information (or better reasoning) B becomes available, and goal A' now looks unlikely. Person can choose from various actions, from complete resignation to a new goal. Say person chooses new goal B', not as good as A', but better than current state A, now to be achieved through action Y.<br /><br />This can of course be repeated for new information, learning along the way, etc.<br /><br />It follows that any person seeking an improved future state will always appear optimistic because on the aggregate we know in practice not everyone reaches an improved desired state (whatever that might be), and there is a high failure rate. Yet if people consistently aim for improved states A' (and failing that then B' etc), rather than resigning, the aggregate will always appear unrealistically optimistic.<br /><br />It may be worth considering what a rationally optimistic population might look like. In order not to observe irrational optimism, we would need to observe, on the aggregate, goals which are almost certainly within the reach of people. They must be almost certainly within reach because information uncertainty and reasoning constraints prevent any more distant goal from being achieved reliably. What might these near-certain goals look like? They might look like Z' – hardly at all any improvement on current state A.<br /><br />Why should people prefer goal Z'? On the positive side, it is very low risk and almost certain. However is it actually rational to aim for Z' rather than A'? Is it worth the effort? Would resignation be better? Given uncertainties, a person may rationally judge that they (currently) have no reason to believe A' is not worth the effort of pursuing on a effort/reward basis. Again given uncertainties and limitations, the information required in order to more deeply judge how realistic A' is might only be discoverable in the pursuit of A'. It is rational then to prefer A' over Z' in the first instance. Then B' in the second, and Z' lastly.<br /><br />Irrational optimism is on this basis an observational artifact caused by (non-resigned) people selecting rational goals in a highly uncertain landscape of choices, rather than motivated reasoning.<br /><br />Regards,Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com