This post is by Kevin Dorst and Matthew Mandelkern whose paper, " Good Guesses ", is forthcoming in Philosophy and Phenomenological Research . The authors have written another post on guessing and the conjunction fallacy which you can read here . Matthew Mandelkern Where do you think Latif will go to law school? He’s been accepted to Yale, Harvard, Stanford, and NYU. We don’t know his preferences, but here’s the proportion of applicants with the same choices who’ve gone to each: Yale, 38%; Harvard, 30%; Stanford, 20%; NYU, 12%. So take a guess: Where do you think he’ll go? Some observations: One natural guess is ‘Yale’. Another is ‘Either Yale or Harvard’; meanwhile, it’s decidedly unnatural to guess ‘not Yale’, or ‘Yale, Stanford, or NYU’. Though robust, these judgments are puzzling. ‘Yale’ is a fine guess, but its probability is below 50%, meaning that its negation is strictly more probable (38% vs. 62%); nevertheless, ‘not Yale’ is a weird guess. Moreover, ‘Yale or H
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